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Why The Bitcoin Flash Crash To $6,400 Isn’t Entirely Bearish

Finn Sawyer (strangeradiocentral.com), 05/17/2019

Positive Factors  

Bitcoin (BTC) has just seen its craziest hour of price action since the weekend, during which the cryptocurrency market rallied by 20%, if not more. For those who missed the memo, or haven’t checked the charts or Crypto Twitter in a hot second, Bitcoin collapsed by over 15% in minutes on Bitstamp, falling from $7,800 to $6,200.

Interestingly, however, most of the downturn was contained to Bitstamp, a Europe-centric exchange, as there existed a $500 to $600 spread between its BTC/USD pair and the same pair on Coinbase. Since our report on the matter, BTC has recovered to $7,300 and has flatlined for the time being.

As the market has settled, some have sought to determine how this rapid drawdown will affect Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, especially in such an unpredictable environment. And per a number of analysts, Friday morning’s move should not only be expected but should be seen as a positive sign. Yes, you read that right.

Evidence is mounting that a single actor, or group of entities, catalyzed this move with mere clicks of their mouses. As recently noted by Adamant Capital’s Tuur Demeester, the rapid collapse was led by serious sell orders on Bitstamp. Some have suggested that this was in a bid to manipulate the value of the BitMEX’s perpetual swap for Bitcoin, specifically in an attempt to liquidate the millions of dollars of shorts racking up over recent days and weeks.

As Three Arrows Capital’s Su Zhu suggests, someone tried to exploit BitMEX’s mark price by placing a large sell order on Bitstamp, which the former exchange draws data from to determine its index. Order book history seemingly corroborates this theory, as an entity placed a massive 2,000 BTC sell order at $6,500 on Bitstamp, seemingly in a bid to depress the price for a short period of time.

It worked, but Bitcoin has since bounced back on the exchange by over 10%, hinting that there isn’t a large amount of bonafide selling pressure.

What’s more, many analysts and commentators on Twitter anecdotally stated that they “bought the dip”, confirming that anywhere sub-$7,000 is an accumulation range for traders and investors alike.

It is important to add that such a move is expected, nay, mandated in such frothy market conditions. Analyst Crypto Quantamental notes that during 2017’s jaw-dropping bull market, “these sorts of drawdowns” were entirely commonplace and a near-weekly occurrence. Case in point, in early-December, BTC often saw -20%+ days, and then rebounded to new heights the next day.

Bitcoin Returns To Key Levels

Other reasons why some see this move as not entirely bearish is what occurred immediately after. Trader Anton Pagi notes that on Coinbase, Bitcoin’s four-hour chart during the sell-off was the largest seen in 2019. While this isn’t bullish in and of itself, when coupled with the fact that BTC rapidly bounced back above its 50 four-hour moving average and has yet to falter, bullish narratives can be spun.

Prominent researcher Alex Krüger expressed a similar sentiment, noting that he would long at $6,400, hinting that such a level was a local bottom. The fact that BTC bounced rapidly off that level could be seen as a very positive sign.

But what makes this extremely notable is that $6,400 is the region, which is where there was a CME Bitcoin futures gap, often found when markets are imbalanced in terms of buying and selling pressure. Commentator Cantering Clark recently explained that a gap forming at the start of a “major trend reversal”, which BTC might have seen earlier this week, is a sign of a “high-volume bullish shift.”

Sentiment Strong

What puts a cherry on top of the bullish Bitcoin cake is the fact that sentiment remained decidedly bullish before, during, and after the move. Throughout the sell-off, which took twenty minutes tops, everyone and their mother on Twitter were screaming for their followers to “buy the dip”, throwing in expletives and emojis to make a point.

And as Ari Paul of BlockTower adds, during the dip, not a single person in a room of 30 crypto-centric investors and “people” batted an eye. If that doesn’t say much about the sentiment of cryptocurrency investors at the moment, we’re not too sure what else will.

"I'm not sure this dip is bullish, but one interesting datapoint: I was in a room with 30 crypto people and no one batted an eye. Strong underlying confidence. I actually thought my phone app might be broken for a second when the tone in the room didn't change." — Ari Paul

Why The Bitcoin Flash Crash To $6,400 Isn’t Entirely Bearish

 
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